Analyst in Sudan: Three scenarios for post-coup Sudan
Following the military coup of October 25 and the signing of the political agreement between General El Burhan and Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok on November 21, Sudan faces three possible scenarios, namely the continuation of the regime, the reestablishment of civilian rule transition, or a complete state collapse, according to Dr. Suliman Baldo, a Sudanese analyst based in the United States in African affairs and specialist in conflict zones, after the coup d’etat. October 25.
In an interview with Radio Dabanga, the second and final part of which will air today, Baldo says that the first scenario is the continuation of the coup d’Ã©tat by allowing himself in a real situation of an authoritarian, oppressive, dictatorial authority based on absolute oppression. and murderous violence. And that, according to Baldo, is the most likely possibility, meaning that the economic crisis will continue to worsen due to the suspension of his reforms and associated aid.
He added: “If they succeed, they will have no choice but to practice absolute violence to suppress the protest movement which rejects them and to seek ineffectively to solve the problems of the economy, as the Bashir’s regime since 2011, after the Sudanese economy was deprived of oil revenues â.
The analyst said that the coup camp is working, through this scenario, to exercise real power in the state from behind the facade it presents to the world, which is the political agreement signed with Hamdok. Economic problems inefficiently, as the Bashir regime has been doing since 2011. After the release of oil from the Sudanese economy, Baldo explained that this first scenario is the most likely and the most likely.
Regarding the second scenario, Baldo clarified that this scenario is represented by the success of the transitional civilian government that Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok will form by imposing his will and his decision on the coup camp, rejecting all decisions taken unilaterally by putschists and restoring the matter in its rightful place with the precedence of the decision for the civilian component.
Baldo stressed that this scenario is the least likely to occur despite Hamdok having taken steps in this direction by overturning all decisions made by El Burhan, including the appointment of new under-secretaries to replace the under-secretaries appointed by El Burhan.
Baldo specified that the third scenario is the collapse of the state, the “somali -ization” of the situation in Sudan, the breach of the security contract and the rule of law and the transformation of affairs into military clashes between all parties. civilian and military components. and militias.
But Baldo played down this scenario and said that the wisdom of the Sudanese people, their ability to find solutions, and their legacy of mediation and initiatives make it difficult for Sudan to collapse as a state, even though all Elements for the collapse of the state are present.
He ruled out a return to the partnership between civilians and the military and told Radio Dabanga that the political forces refused to return to the partnership with the military in its old form due to their total loss of confidence in the military component after October 25. cut.
He explained that the best opportunity for the camp of rejection and the three no’s who resist the coup and its procedures, is to work to clarify and retain the population on their perceptions so that they have a say.
Baldo said that the duty of the rejection camp is to define its political and economic visions of the post-transition situation “whether this is done through military domination or through a strong position of the civilian component in the composition available under the policy. agreement”.
Baldo sees that the rejection taking place in the streets now has a chance to cripple the coup camp’s ability to impose its will and authority on power.
In this regard, Baldo encourages the Sudanese to continue to reject military rule, but in various and varied forms. He added: âThere must be a diverse and multifaceted mass movement on an ongoing basis with the development of tools to express rejection and cripple the ability of the coup camp to consolidate the pillars of its power in the country. country. “
He called on the leaders of the resistance committees at the head of this mass movement to reflect in the future on the forms of governance they would like for the country and to ensure the continuation of the democratic transition of Sudan under civilian leadership. fully legitimate.
In the first part of the interview, broadcast yesterday by Radio Dabanga, Baldo asserts that the controversial political agreement signed on November 21 by General Abdelfattah El Burhan, head of the military junta which seized power in Sudan during a coup d’etat on October 25, and Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, is “an intermediary step which makes it possible to avoid the worst effects of the coup, including bloodshed, international isolation and the return of Sudan to its former status of pariah within the international community â.
Listen to the first part of the interview on Radio Dabanga (in Arabic)
Dr Suliman Baldo is Senior Policy Advisor for Project Enough. He recently headed the Sudan Democracy First Group, a Sudan-focused think tank aimed at helping accelerate democratization and peace in the country.